Trusted methods and Support for Cochrane Reviews of Prognostic studies

Lotty Hooft, Karel Moons

Prognostic studies address future outcomes and the prediction of these outcomes in individuals. Prognosis forms the basis of personalized or risk-based medicine. Primary studies on prognostic factors, (bio)markers, tests and models are abundant. Systematic syntheses of this massive evidence is necessary. Almost all available methodological guidance for systematic reviews (SRs) of prognostic studies (still) comes from Cochrane members. To prevent we are surpassed by others with respect to SRs of prognostic studies, as we see happening for SRs of RCTs, we must invest our resources to embark on a sustainable infrastructure to support such novel reviews within Cochrane. With the here available resources, we cannot build the entire capacity needed for such long-lasting infrastructure, but we can guarantee we lay the fundamentals by providing the necessary guidance for and teaching of Cochrane stakeholders, and to conduct and disseminate high-priority exemplar reviews.



Riley RD, Moons K, Snell KIE, Ensor J, Hooft L, Altman D, Hayden J, Collins GS, Debray TP. A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies. BMJ 2019:364;k4597.

Debray TPA, Damen JAA, Riley RD, Snell K, Reitsma JB, Hooft L, Collins GS, Moons KGM. A framework for meta-analysis of prediction model studies with binary and time-to-event outcomes. Stat Methods Med Res 2018:0.

Debray TPA, Damen JAAG, Snell, KIE, Ensor J, Hooft L, Reitsma JB, Riley RD, Moons KGM. A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prediction model performance. BMJ 2017:356;i6460.

Gurusamy KS, Debray TPA, Rompianesi G. Prognostic models for predicting the severity and mortality in people with acute pancreatitis. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2018:5.


Source of Funding

Our mission is to promote evidence-informed health decision-making by producing high-quality, relevant, accessible systematic reviews and other synthesized research evidence.

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  • Funder :Cochrane
  • Project Category : Cochrane Strategic Methods Funds
  • Project Reference :
  • Funded Period : Jan 2017 - present
  • Funded Amount : GBP 200,000