The number of primary studies evaluating prognostic factors and models is rising. Critically summarizing and analyzing the evidence form prognostic studies in a systematic review and meta analysis, respectively, is beneficial for health care professionals seeking the best evidence. Reviews of prognostic studies are more challenging because of more variation in questions & designs, specific sources of bias & variation, and more complex statistical models, as compared to e.g. randomized therapeutic intervention trials . Several advances regarding the design, critical appraisal and statistical analysis in systematic reviews of prognostic studies, have recently been made. In this course we discuss and practice how to define your review questions, how to critically assess the methodological quality of primary prognostic studies, and which statistical methods to use for meta-analyses of the results of primary prognostic studies. The course consists of plenary presentations, small-group discussions, and computer exercises.
By the end of the course, you should be able to:
- Explain the rationale for performing a systematic review of prognostic studies
- List the key steps of a systematic review of prognostic studies
- Formulate a focused review question addressing a prognostic problem
- Systematically search the literature
- Critically appraise the evidence from primary prognostic studies
- Formulate the difficulties of meta-analysis of prognostic research
- Meta-analyses of performance of prognostic models
- Meta-analyses of the added value of specific prognostic factors
A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prediction model performance. BMJ 2017:356;i6460.
A framework for meta-analysis of prediction model studies with binary and time-to-event outcomes. Stat Methods Med Res 2018:0.
We expect participants to have a basic knowledge about the principles of prognostic research and of systematic reviews and meta-analysis. A short recap on these topics will be given during the lectures and key papers will be available on this website.