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Predicting Progression in Chronic Kidney Disease

One in ten persons suffers from chronic kidney disease (CKD). Ultimately CKD may progress to end stage renal disease (ESRD). Patients then require dialysis or kidney transplantation. Moreover, CKD patients are at increased risk of cardiovascular events. Due to the ageing population, CKD prevalence is expected to increase. Therefore, the burden of ESRD and cardiovascular disease is expected to increase as well. Better prevention of CKD progression is needed to curb this trend.

This project aims to compare measures of CKD progression and to refine international guidelines for the definition of progressive CKD. Hereto, ESRD incidence will be compared across three CKD cohorts from France, the USA and the Netherlands, respectively. In addition, CKD progression rates and determinants for ESRD will be compared across aformentioned cohorts. In the second part of the proposed work, we will create an overview of prognostic factors and prediction models for ESRD, cardiovascular outcome and mortality in CKD. We will combine the best predictors in meta-prognostic models using state-of-the-art meta-analysis methodology. Finally, we will extend these models to incorporate information collected during follow-up and create dynamic prognostic models. Such dynamic models can be continuously updated, and thus adhere closely to clinical practice.

Upon completion of the project we will have published at least four research papers describing:

  • a clear definition of progression in CKD;
  • international differences in ESRD incidence and population level determinants;
  • a comprehensive overview of prognostic factors for CKD; and
  • a set of dynamic prediction models ready for testing in clinical practice.

In a follow-up study we will implement the results in clinical practice and ascertain impact on decision making and outcomes.

Project Details

FunderRadboud Institute for Health Sciences
Project CategoryJunior Researcher Project 2016
Project Reference
Funded PeriodDec 2015 - present
Funded ValueEUR 240,000
LeadProf. dr. Jack Wetzels and Dr. Jan van den Brand